THIS is why NSW has lost 8 series

NSW forward Tony Williams believes the Blues' thorough preparation has them well positioned to claim victory in the opening game of the State of Origin series.

Robbie Farah does his impression of a NSW Blues selector. Source: News Limited

AVERT your eyes if you live south of the Tweed and have a weak disposition. This is the unpleasant yet definitive proof of where it has all gone wrong for the Blues.

This is not complicated. It's like one of those crossword clues you look up the next day and go "d'oh! Why didn't I think of that?"

Here goes, then. In a macadamia nutshell, Queensland's eight-year Origin streak is based around picking players from in-form teams. And NSW's incompetence is because they have failed to do that.

The numbers don't lie. In the eight years of the Queensland State of Origin streak, NSW selectors have consistently picked players from the bottom half of the NRL ladder. Queensland selectors, by contrast, have wisely preferred players from the top half.

Well might Paul Gallen joke about Queenslanders having two heads, but it seems two heads are better than one when it comes to selection meetings.

Who cares how many heads you have when you've bagged eight Origin series in a row? Source: News Limited

Here are the numbers that matter*. These stats relate to the teams picked for Game One each year. The ladder positions of NRL teams were current as at the last completed round before that game.

— Of 136 Game One selections (8 years x 17 players), NSW selectors picked just 83 players from top 8 teams. That's a ratio of just 61 per cent.

— Queensland selectors picked 96 players from top 8 teams, a much healthier ratio of 71 per cent.

— While NSW selectors have a blind spot towards the majority of top eight teams, they do tend to respect the team leading the NRL. NSW has picked 16 players from the NRL leaders, compared to Queensland's 11.

— But NSW selectors have undone all that good work by picking six players from the club at the very bottom of the ladder over the last eight dismal Origin seasons.

— Queensland, by contrast, has selected just one (that was Nate Myles in 2007, whose Roosters sat last. But most people have Myles in their all-time Qld team, so you can probably excuse that one).

So basically, NSW selectors couldn't pick Pinocchio's nose. Source: NewsComAu

Now obviously, you can look well beyond these or any other numbers in seeking the reasons for Queensland's dominance.

There are the dud halves NSW repeatedly selected (think Braith Anasta and Mitchell Pearce). Or the ones with talent like Jarrod Mullen, who selectors inexplicably kicked away like an empty can after one match.

A dejected Blues Robbie Farah after NSW loss during Origin Game 3 NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons at ANZ Stadium, Homebush. Source: News Limited

Alternatively, you could focus on unquantifiables like passion, or team culture, or the fact that Queensland just happened to unearth seven or eight all-time greats in the same era.

You could also argue that Queensland players tend to be concentrated in three teams — the Storm, Cowboys and Broncos — so they naturally gel well in Origin. Those teams also tend to be entrenched at the pointy end of the ladder, which explains why QLD selectors perhaps aren't forced to choose as many players from outside the top eight.

But the bottom line is this. NSW selectors have been too cute, almost too creative in their search for a winning team. They grab players from here and from there, regardless of how those players' teams are performing.

Anyone who's ever played any sport at almost any level will tell you that people with a winning mentality help create a winning team. This is Queensland's secret. Pick guys from winning teams. Win Origin series, one after another. It's a secret which NSW has ignored for eight years.

Blokes like Billy Slater know a thing or two about winning. Pic: Adam Head Source: News Limited

This year, the signs are better for Blues fans. Selectors have picked four players from the high-flying Bulldogs. Quite coincidentally, the Bulldogs also led the NRL ladder before Origin in 2010, and NSW also picked four Dogs that year. They lost Origin 3-0.

The Blues will want to hope that was a statistical blip. They'll also do well to forget that their skipper Paul Gallen plays for the Sharks, who are currently running last.

*Regarding 2010 when the Melbourne Storm was stripped of all premierships points for Salary Cap breaches, we have treated their ladder position as third, not last, to reflect their 7-3 win loss ratio at Origin time.

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