Indonesias search authority said its preliminary assessment is that AirAsia Flight 8501 is likely at the bottom of the sea. WSJs Ramy Inocencio speaks with Southeast Asia bureau chief Patrick McDowell.
A man looks at a map showing the search area for missing Malaysian air carrier AirAsia flight QZ8501 outside the crisis-centre set up at Juanda International Airport in Surabaya. Picture: AFP / Manan Vatsyayana Source: AFP
Why did the plane fly into bad weather?
The last communication with the aircraft indicated the pilots were looking to avoid severe weather by changing altitude and deviating from their flight path. Experts have suggested the aircraft should not have flown into bad weather and would have had ample warning from long range on board equipment to avoid it.
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Why was there no distress message?
A pilot's first priority is to fly the plane and ensure the safety of those on board. It is also possible the aircraft experienced an electrical failure rendering communications impossible.
Search planes and ships from several countries were scouring Indonesian waters over which an AirAsia jet disappeared. Picture: AP /Trisnadi Marjan Source: AP
Why did the electronic locator transmitter (ELT) not alert search and rescue authorities to the aircraft's whereabouts if it crashed?
ELTs are normally considered reliable devices that operate on battery power and are automatically activated when an aircraft crashes into water or on land. They are fitted in the tail of the aircraft alongside the flight data recorder. At a press conference, Indonesia's Transport Safety Committee chief Tatang Kurniadi suggested the ELT could be broken, or the plane was down in mountains and the signal was blocked.
Could the plane have stalled?
That is possible in the circumstances and there are indications the plane's flight speed had slowed, suggesting it may have been approaching a stall. Depending on the weather, experts have said the aircraft should have been able to recover from a stall because of its height and on board default systems.
If the plane crashed, what are the chances of anyone surviving the impact?
Given the aircraft's altitude at its last communication with Air Traffic Control, at more than 36,000 feet, it is likely any crash would have been very high impact. The chance of survivors would be virtually nil.
Radar image showing planes around AirAsia flight QZ8501 when it went missing. Picture: Supplied. Source: Supplied
How long will it take to find the aircraft?
The search area is 124,000 square kilometres, twice the size of the search area identified for MH370. The one advantage is the Java Sea is fairly shallow with an average depth of about 40m. More than 20 aircraft and vessels are assisting with the search, including a Royal Australian Air Force P3-Orion.
Planes fly that route all the time. Why hasn't this happened before?
That will not be known until the aircraft is found and the flight data recorder recovered, revealing exactly what occurred. Aircraft have been brought down in bad weather before, most notably the Air France Flight 447 from Rio de Janeiro to Paris in January 2009. Bad weather, and poor decisions by the flight crew were found to have resulted in the crash into the Atlantic Ocean. Despite good information about the location of the crash, it took two years to find and recover the A330 and the 228 people on board who lost their lives.
Does this mean airlines from this region are unsafe?
No. Australia's Civil Aviation Safety Authority has been helping to train air regulators in Indonesia for the last six years in an effort to improve standards. AirAsia has an excellent safety record, and has carried 220 million passengers in the last 13 years.
PM Tony Abbott doesn't believe the disappearance of AirAsia flight QZ8501 is a mystery or an atrocity.
What do we know about AirAsia Indonesia?
The airline has never been involved in a serious crash, and has never lost a life, or an aircraft. It is the Indonesian franchise of the Malaysian-based AirAsia which was recently named the world's best low cost carrier at the World Travel Awards. AirAsia Indonesia flies to destinations throughout South East Asia and to Darwin and Perth in Australia.
Who was the pilot and what was his flying record?
Indonesia's Captain Iriyanto (one name only) was well regarded in his local community of Sidoarjo and was considered a very experienced pilot. Before becoming a commercial airline pilot, Captain Iriyanto flew F-16 fighter jets in the Indonesian air force. He had over 6000 hours of flying experience on A320s, and more than 20,000 hours of flying experience in total.
What about the other crew?
French copilot Remi Emmanual Plesel, 45, had logged 2275 hours of flying time. Other crew members included Oscar Desano who tweeted his condolences and concerns after the MH370 and MH17 tragedies.
AirAsia has never been involved in a serious crash, and has never lost a life, or an aircraft. Picture: AP/Joshua Paul Source: AP
Who else was on board?
The passengers included 149 Indonesians, three South Koreans, one Singaporean, one Malaysian and one man from the United Kingdom.
The crew included six Indonesians and a Frenchman (copilot Plesel).
Is there any link between this incident and MH370 or MH17?
Some experts have noted similarities between this incident and MH370, in that both aircraft disappeared from radars relatively early into their flights. But authorities remain confident QZ8501 will be found within the region in which it disappeared. Although piracy is an issue in the Java Sea, there is no suggestion the aircraft was shot down like MH17.
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